Theinterests of China and North Korea have been steadily diverging. Tostart with China has learned that it can live beside a powerfulunited pro American Korea as a natural ally. China itself ispowerful enough to see off any such challenge in the event. Better,the probability of such a war will be of China's choosing.
Inthe meantime North Korea continues its reckless policy of provocationto extort concessions from the global community after which itretreats to the negotiating table for a couple of years. It appearsthat this pattern will not be changing with the new head of state.
Otherscan play the same game but are not and we are left with a holdingpattern of benign neglect that everyone finds uncomfortable but notso much as to actually act. Again the hope is an internal revoltwhich in this case is highly unlikely.
NorthKorea today is effectively a government of slaveholders as bad as hasever been imagined. Yet the status quo is China's to change and noother and China's leadership itself must be likewise judged remissfor its own inaction.
WhyChina still supports North Korea, in six little words
Postedby MaxFisher onFebruary 12, 2013
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/02/12/why-china-still-supports-north-korea-in-six-little-words/
NorthKorea’slatest nuclear test on Tuesday is puttingsome strain on its all-important relationship with China,which gives its angry little neighbor absolutely essential support:everything from money to energy to diplomatic cover at the UnitedNations.
Butwhy does Chinabotherto prop up North Korea, anyway? The pariah state is a diplomatic andeconomic liability, an albatross around China’s neck as it tries toshape itself into a responsible global power.
Therea number of reasons, some of them rational and some not, but China’sstrategy boils down to these oft-repeated,six little words:
Nowar, no instability, no nukes.It’sas much a strategy as it is a mantra, often rendered in the originalChinese: ä¸�战、ä¸�ä¹±、æ— æ ¸.And the order matters, listing China’s priorities from highest tolowest.
Thefirst priority – no war – goesback to the Korean war, which cost hundreds of thousands of Chineselives and almost ended with a unified, pro-AmericanKorea righton China’s border: Beijing’s nightmare.
Thesecond priority – no instability – meansthat Beijing wants to keep North Korea from collapsing, which couldcause China all sorts of problems — streams of Korean refugees,loose nuclear materials (see priority number three) and the risk ofthe war that China so wants to avoid.
Thethird priority – no nukes – isclearly last of these three, as China would prefer a stable andnuclearNorth Koreato an unstable but nuke-free one. But it’s still a big priority. Aninsightful reportby the Center for Strategic and International Studies explainswhy:
Althoughthe Chinese do not view North Korea’s acquisition of nuclearweapons as an existential threat to China, there are worries that aperception of a growing nuclear threat could lead SouthKorea,Japan, and even Taiwan to develop nuclear capabilities. North Korea’snuclear programs and demonstrated provocations have already promptedthe United States, Japan, and South Korea to strengthen defensecoordination and have led Tokyo and Seoul to enhance their missiledefense. These developments are judged to have had a harmful impacton China’s security environment.
So,here it is again: the six wordsthat,in order, explain why China goes to such lengths to prop up NorthKorea despite the costs.
Nowar, no instability, no nukes.
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