What this brings into stark relief is that the status quo is crackingboth economically and socially. The people are demanding a say andare clawing back rights. At the same time the Falun Gong persecutionis backfiring as is ongoing actions of the secret police to controlsociety. Importantly though is that expansion by State drivencapital spending has been taken just as far as is plausible.
Worse, two factions are sliding toward confrontation and that can notbode well as either will be pressed into aggressive tactics sooneror later.
What is needed now is the immediate establishment of two party ruleat the first tier of political power. That means at the local level. There power must be turned over to elected officials who have thetrust of their constituents. I would go so far as to establish twolegal parties, one titled the Reform Communist Party and the otherknown as the National Communist Party. That allows everyone to finda home.
I would use an every two year election cycle as we have found thatuseful at this level. Then once we have reached the forth electioncycle, I would establish the same system for the next tier and thenmove progressively into the higher levels each cycle thereafterbecause by that point an ample cadre of experienced pols will exist.
In the meantime, a lot of disturbing stories can be expected out ofChina and a lot sooner than any of us will like.
November 12,2012
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/gordon-chang-predicts-chinese-communist-party-s-collapse-313890.html
The Chinese CommunistParty’s inability to govern effectively will bring its collapsewithin the next year or so, says author and analyst Gordon Chang.
Chang said in a Nov.9 interview on Ontario’s public media station TVO that hepredicted in his 2001 book, The Coming Collapse of China, thatit would take about 10 years for the Chinese regime to collapse. Wecould be talking about China as the world’s next failed state atthis time next year, he added.
“In China you cansee all the elements moving in the wrong direction,” Chang said.Pointing to thescandals and factional infighting leading up to the 18th Congress andthe leadership transition, Chang said that many people wonder whetherthe Communist Party will be able to keep things together.
“You have to go backto the beginnings of the Peoples’ Republic to see a problem as bigas this one,” Chang said. “At this point there are no eldersreally to enforce discipline, there’s no Mao Zedong, no DengXiaoping, no strong man to basically keep the fighting in bounds.”
Addressing the Party’s loss of legitimacy and need for reform,Chang pointed out that the exposure of the alleged fortunesaccumulated by Xi’s and Wen’s families, the Bo scandal, and therampant corruption by officials have delegitimized the CommunistParty in the eyes of the populace. People have lost faith in theParty with each allegation, not just of corruption, but of thelicentiousness, murder, and treason, which have all eroded away theParty’s legitimacy, Chang said.
“This is the timewhen China really needs reform, but reform and structural change willbe off the agenda … and that really is the problem for China rightnow … and the Communist Party is in no position to see structuralchange go forward,” Chang said.
Every time there is aleadership change, Chinese people get their hopes up that there mightbe some improvement, only to find that the new guys are reallybasically as bad or worse than the old ones, Chang said, adding,“What these people stand for … we are seeing an affirmation ofthe status quo.”However, economicrealities and the changing Chinese society will be unavoidabledriving factors in China’s direction, regardless of the Party’spreference, according to Chang.
Party conservativescertainly want no change, yet something clearly needs to be done, hesaid, as the economy clearly is stumbling, with the economic growthactually closer to zero percent or 1 percent than to the Party’sproclaimed 7 percent, if other economic data, such as power usage,are used to determine growth. The Communist Party’s legitimacy isdependent on continually delivering economic growth and prosperity,and the economic statistics are troubling, Chang said.
In Chang’s opinion,changes in Chinese society will also push against the Party.
“Most people believethat a one-party-system is no longer appropriate for China’smodernizing society, and that is a fundamental problem that theCommunist Party can’t get over,” he said.
A new assertiveness ismanifesting in the Chinese people and is demonstrated by theenvironmental protests and the regime’s acquiescence to theprotesters’ demands. The people see leaders walking away withbillions, and this fuels their anger, Chang said.
“Clearly what we seeis a deterioration in the ability of the Communist Party to govern.”
chinareports@epochtimes.com
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