Isometimes wonder just what pundits are thinking. Israel has justused Gaza as a shooting gallery without seriously risking life andlimb and sharply reducing the actual missile threat posed by Hamas. Even better they were able to battle test the Iron Dome against amissile suite that obviously is not even capable of hitting atarget.
Inthe Aftermath, Hamas will loudly declare a victory and perhaps soberup. They got zero support from Egypt or anyone else for that matter. Egypt is now morally in a position to supervise their stepchild andwill since no conceivable Egyptian interest is served by having astate of war in the Sinai.
RecallHezbollah went through the same process of asserting theircredentials in southern Lebanon and then announced victory when itwas nothing of the sort. What they asserted was that they couldengage in a bloodbath on their own home ground while absorbing 100%of the collateral damage and even paying for it. This is a completerepeat with the only difference been that their missile threat iseven less of a threat with the Iron Dome in place.
Egyptis now in position to negotiate a settlement with Gaza that has beenneeded since 1948 and ultimately quell their border. With thepolitical credentials of the Muslim Brotherhood, it is even possibleto normalize trade with Israel. Both are now desirable outcomes forEgypt while Gaza was lost its legitimacy as a military threat toanyone.
Infact as Egyptian power waxes it will find itself in real conflictwith the averred goals of Hamas. Dealing with it now has becomedesirable. Can you imagine massive Israeli investment in Egypt?
Inshort, Egypt and Morsi are the winners of this conflict, while Gazahas been reduced to impotence. Israel won in 1967 and the rest of ithas been assisting the Arabs in accepting that. The last holdouts ofSyria and Gaza have fallen on their swords during the past yearleaving a completely isolated Iran who can only talk the talk today.
Inthe meantime, the Palestinian people are hopelessly isolated intopockets and are now coming to grips with making the bestaccommodation possible in a piecemeal fashion. Their best possibledeal today would be outright absorption of the West Bank with agenerational process of reeducation and acceptance of Israelicitizenship. There is enough on the table for Israel to come togrips with establishing a social and economic dispensation that isfair and equitable. It may never be possible but we need to see itdone somewhere and sometime and there is no better case.
After Israel-Gaza: Who won, wholost?
By Peter Wilkinson, CNN
updated 12:09 PM EST, Thu November 22,2012
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/22/world/meast/mideast-winners-losers/?hpt=hp_t1
(CNN) -- As thedust settled over Gaza and Israel on Thursday amid relative calm,analysts were weighing who were the winners and losers from theconflict. How do the main players in the region now stack up?
Israel: Theconflict represents a qualified victory for the country andits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to CNN's PaulaNewton. "Just months before an election, Netanyahu's governmenttargeted and killed Hamas' military leader, Ahmed al-Jaabari.Hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza followed, but, the real victory waspossibly the combat debut of Iron Dome, the U.S.-funded defenseshield that kept dozens of Hamas rockets from hitting Israelicivilians."
The Israelimilitary itself said the intensity of its airstrikes on Gazameant it made a significant dent in Hamas' offensive capability. Overthe eight-day conflict, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) looked todeplete some of the estimated 12,000 rockets it says Hamas has in itsarsenal and destroy tunnels that are said to be used to smuggleweapons.
But some analystsquestioned whether the death of al-Jaabari really would benefitIsrael. Elizabeth O'Bagy, from the Washington-based Institute for theStudy of War, told CNN she believed it was in fact a mistake. "Itwill lead to the proliferation of extremist groups (in Gaza), lesscontrol over rocket attacks and an increase in violence againstIsrael."
Al-Jaabari controlledthe militias with an iron grip, as Jon Alterman, for theWashington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies,pointed out. "There were people in Hamas jails for firingrockets at the wrong time and al-Jaabari was one of the guys who putthem in jail. Now when someone decides to take a pot-shot, they cantake a pot-shot."
The background of theconflict took place in a region greatly changed since the lastsignificant violence of 2008-09. In the UK's Daily Telegraph,Richard Spencer wrote that the Arab Spring had changed the situationsignificantly for Israel: "Once it could afford to retreat intoa default position of using overwhelming force in its own defence.After all, the Arab dictators it faced were equally unflinching -- intheir rhetoric, at least, even if their actions often failed tomatch.
"Now Israel has apolitical base that is more divided and broad-ranging than everbefore, and allies that are profoundly uneasy about its policies. Andsuddenly its neighbours are more pluralist. Hamas has new democraticallies abroad, in many cases allied to the U.S. -- Egypt, Turkey andQatar prominent among them."
Even before thecease-fire was brokered, CNN's Nic Robertson observed: "Wheredoes this leave Israel? Simply put, while Israel is strongermilitarily, it is in a weaker political position than it was in 2009."The longuniversal of the Arab world is a dislike of the Israeli state'streatment of Palestinians. In the past most Arab leaders weredictators, able to take a path far different from the views of theArab street. Not any more. The region's new post-Arab Springdemocratically-elected leaders are only too aware of the radicalhardliners waiting for an opportunity."
Hamas: Despitethe deaths and destruction in Gaza, the Islamist political movementthat rules the territory has emerged emboldened from this conflictand its truce, according to some observers.
"Hamas hasemerged stronger, it has consolidated its control over Gaza and ithas gained now more legitimacy," said Aaron David Miller, aMiddle East scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, told CNN.In the eyes of manyPalestinian people, the militant leaders of Gaza took on Israel moreboldly than ever before, firing rockets farther than ever before. Andthey may yet manage to get an easing of the Gaza economic blockade ifa more comprehensive deal can be reached.
"Look what theyaccomplished; they, rather than (President Mahmoud) Abbas, has putthe Palestinian issue back on the international stage," saysMiller.
But with Al-Jaabarionce a key figure in uniting rag-tag Hamas militias into organizedbrigades, counter-intuitively his death could mean more unrest ahead."He was an enforcer of peace as well as war," saidAlterman, adding that his death may "make it not only harder toreach a peace agreement, but it can make it harder to avoid war."
Fatah: PalestinianAuthority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction that governsthe West Bank have lost much in this conflict, commented CNN'sNewton. "He was supposed to be the moderate peace broker whocould finally forge a new deal with Israel. Now he cannot even claimto speak for all Palestinians and has shown that he has no leveragewith Hamas, his archrival."
In an op-ed forCNN, Danielle Pletka, vice president for foreign and defense policystudies at the American Enterprise Institute, said Hamas was nottrying to destroy the state of Israel. "Rather, it was to gainthe upper hand in its endless and fruitless battle against Fatah forthe Palestinian political mantle, ideally with the wind of the Arabworld's Islamist revolutions at its back. That won't happen either.
"Egypt's MohamedMorsy and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan are willing to lendrhetorical support and a few visits to Gaza, but they're never goingto do anything substantial for Palestinians because they neither careenough about actual Palestinian people nor wish to queer their pitchwith Europe and the United States."
Egypt: PresidentMohamed Morsy, clearly underestimated, deftly navigated what is aminefield of competing interests, including those of his own country.
"For a civilianpresident in Egypt perceived as a weak leader, he has, much toeveryone's surprise, delivered," said Miller.
Morsy proved he hadthe leverage necessary to bring Hamas to the table and get itsleadership to agree to a cease-fire. Brokering that deal has givenhim much needed political capital in both the Arab world and theUnited States.
Under former PresidentHosni Mubarak, the country's security forces had suppressed its ownIslamists in the Muslim Brotherhood, even jailing Morsy at one point.That gave Morsy and his government influence with Hamas that Mubarak,a product of Egypt's military establishment, never had, saidFawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations and Middle Eastanalyst at the London School of Economics.
"Hamas listens toMohamed Morsy," Gerges told CNN as the talks were still goingon. "Hamas looks up to Egypt now, at this particular stage, andthat is why Egypt has emerged as the most important state vis-a-visHamas and Gaza." Egypt's role in the talks was "pivotal,"he said.
Iran: TheIslamic republic's nuclear program was one of the unspoken aspects tothe conflict, according to world affairs columnist Frida Ghitis."Iran and its nuclear program also play a powerful psychologicalrole, as observers and participants ponder the parallels between thelatest Israel-Hamas conflict and a possible war in which Iran wouldstand against the U.S. or Israel, and perhaps other NATO allies.
"Little wonderthen that Israel has received strong support from U.S. PresidentBarack Obama -- who has repeatedly stated, "We are fullysupportive of Israel's right to defend itself from missiles rainingon people's homes" -- as well as from nations including the UK,Germany, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands and others.
"When Israelissee a rocket launched from Gaza, the thought that one day that rocketcould carry nuclear materials burns hot in their mind."
But Iran's hand wasarguably weakened after this episode as Israel's Iron Dome shothundreds of its missiles out the sky, CNN's Newton said.
While Israel hasalways accused Iran of smuggling weapons to Hamas through theEgyptian border, Iran today implicitly confirmed it.
"Gaza is undersiege, so we cannot help them. The Fajr-5 missiles have not beenshipped from Iran. Its technology has been transferred (there) andare being produced quickly," Mohamed Ali Jafari, the head ofIran's Revolutionary Guard, is quoted as saying by the Iranian newsagency ISNA.
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