This is a good analysis of the changes in store for us once trueelectrical vehicles along with automatic driving comes on stream. Right now driving is massively labor intensive with most of theimplied cost dumped onto the owner. Once a superior alternativebecomes available, the switch will be quick as it should be.
This oncoming transportation revolution will also lower the hardcosts as well. Even better, one will simply book one's own vehicleoff for three hours in the off chance it can acquire credit while youare engaged in a luncheon meeting. All this flexibility draws downthe costs of ownership.
A less obvious expectation is that the space will be made usable. Itcan become a comfortable work space or entertainment space. Thisenhances the value of the vehicle.
New design factorsfor Robot Cars
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/design-change.html
Many of the bigchanges that will come about form robocars will come from how theyfree car designers from the constraints of human-driven cars whichare the owner's sole, or almost-sole vehicle.Much of this dependson this yet-untested idea:
| If one can hire a cheap specialized "robotaxi" (or whistlecar) on demand when one has a special automotive need, car users can elect to purchase a vehicle only for their most common needs, rather than trying to meet almost all of them -- or to not purchase at all. |
For example, for many,most trips are short, single passenger and do not require significantcargo room. Almost nobody purchases a vehicle good only for thatpurpose, because they want to cover the occasional needs for longtrips, taking extra people, carrying cargo, towing or going off-road.
Some of these changeswould also apply to what I'm calling "whistlecars" -- ownedor rented cars that deliver themselves to you when you summon them,but which you still drive.
Let's consider some ofthese changes, and the constraints they remove from vehicledesigners.
Range is much lessimportant
Today, car buyersdemand long range. Electric cars are mostly of modest range, andworse, after they reach their range, must find a rare chargingstation and sit at it for many hours. This is probably the greatestimpediment to their sale.
A robocar need onlymeet the range needs of most of its owner's usual trips,since a longer range car can be called for when needed. It is alsopossible to combine vehicles, so a short-range robocar might take thepassenger to a longer-range robocar, or to an intercity train.
Battery problemsare considerably reduced
With no need for longrange, electric vehicle design overcomes its largest challenge -- thebatteries. Decent range demands lots of batteries, and lots ofbatteries means lots of cost and weight, with significant expense andrecycling trouble required to get lower weight batteries.
Short range electriccars can have minimal batteries, and can thus get away with cheaperand heavier battery technologies. Other short range clean powertechnologies, such as compressed air, also become practical.
Refueling is notusually done while humans travel
A robocar orwhistlecar will refuel/recharge itself after dropping ofits passengers. Fueling/charging stations need not be convenientlylocated on major travel routes. Vehicles can travel a modest distance(vacant) to reach them. (As they do this, energy is wasted, but humantime is not.) This allows slower and more expensive refuelingsystems, including pressurized gas refueling (hydrogen, LNG or evencompressed air.)
It also allows -- atan energy cost -- early adoption of new refueling technologieswithout having to put stations everywhere. As long as trips tostations do not require a significant or expensive fraction of thevehicle's range, stations can be rare and still work. (The lack ofsuitable refueling infrastructure is often cited as the main barrierto several alternative fuel technolgies, such as hydrogen.)
Becauserefueling/charging will be done just prior to trips, and the energywill be expended immediately after, some alternate energy storagemethods may become practical, such as leakier hydrogen storage,supercapacitors, flywheels (even lossy ones) or liquid nitrogen.
Electric vehicles cando slow recharge, at a cost of increased downtime. Fancierhigh-current charging stations can offer fast recharge. Alsopossible, and more suitable for robotaxis, is battery exchange.Battery exchange, with a standardized battery module, can be humanguided or done by robots -- we are, after all, presuming many generaladvances in robotics on the way to robocars.
Electric recharge(even of removable battery modules) can also be moved into the night,where power is much cheaper. In some cases, such as coal and nuclearplants, electricity demand at night is a must that can be well-methere. Alternately if most power became solar, daytime charging wouldbe done.
(Obviously there arelimits to this, and in an all-electric world, battery packs will haveto be charged at times that balance load. This calls for cheaperbatteries, so you can pick and choose.)
Single passengervehicles will be much more common
Most trips will havejust one passenger, so single person form factors become open to cardesigners. Single-width cars can fit far more easily on roads andreduce congestion. Dual person cars can be designed both side-by-sideand inline, including inline face-to-face, thus still taking justhalf or 2/3rds of a lane.
Because robocars cannegotiate with one another, 3 cars, each 2/3 of a lane, could worktogether to fit in 2 lanes.
Reverse and face toface seating
In general,face-to-face seating will be a popular choice for multi-person carsof the 2 and 4 person variety. Single cars may also offer backwardsseating. While this will be reviled by many, it offers twoadvantages. First, in any front impact accident, sitting backwardscan greatly reduce the risk of injury as long as pre-impact brakinghas pushed the person's head and body against the seat and headrest.A seatbelt is possiby not even needed here. Secondly, the mostaerodynamic shape is the teardrop shape which is fat at the front anda point at the back, and in a very small car this may fit a backwardsfacing person better.
Windshieldrequirements are different
While a nicewindshield may be good for visibilty for forward-facing passengers,there is no need to have a large unobstructed view for safety. Thewindshield can be reinforced with bars, for example, allowing it tobe much stronger in the case of impacts, notably impacts withanimals. Other than for passenger comfort, the windshield barely hasto be there at all.
Cargo space is notnecessary in all vehicles
Those wishing to movemore than personal cargo can call for a robotruck/deliverbot with thecapacity they need. If they already have their personal robocar onhand, the truck can follow them to their destination. Otherwise theycan call for a robotruck with passenger compartments, or a car withcargo capacity.
Acceleration is nota big requirement
While electricvehicles all have good acceleration, an ideal robocar trip isperfectly timed with traffic lights and other traffic so it does notstop and start regularly. We like this because it's more efficient,but it also means that acceleration is rare, and need not be thatzippy. Indeed, for comfort, you may prefer it slow.
This may allowtransmissions to be designed differently, to be cheaper and moreefficient -- or even non-existant.
Sport driving vehicleswill continue to have good acceleration, of course. Whistlecars wouldprobably want this acceleration too.
Today, the price of acar is often strongly linked to its acceleration. This may change.
Speed may not bethat important
Vehicles meant justfor urban trips need not even be capable of highway speeds. Vehiclesonly for long trips need not be fully efficient at slower speeds.
If passengers find apleasant working/talking/reading/viewing environment in the vehicle,trip time may become less important than comfort. If the passengercan work efficiently while in the vehicle, they might accept a longertrip to be cheaper or have fewer stops. Such vehicles do not need tobe fast. Save that for rental sportscars.
Different needs forspeed and acceleration may allow entirely different engine andtransmission designs.
Cars may be muchlighter
All of the abovefactors allow the car to be much lighter than today's designs. Inaddition, once the risk of crashes is greatly reduced, more weightcurrently devoted to safety systems can be reduced.
Smaller batteryrequirements, motors, inability to go on highways and being singleseat all point to a much lighter -- and thus more energy efficient –vehicle.
Suspensions can besuper-soft
Human driven vehicles(HDVs) want suspensions which transmit the feel of the road. Arobocar should have a suspension that eliminates bumps &vibrations from the road as much as it can. It may even have acomputer-controlled suspension, using shocks with electromagnets orferofluids, combined with a scanner which examines the road surfaceahead of the wheels, and adapts in real time to eliminate the effectsof potholes or other problems.
One can also conceiveof having more than 4 wheels, so that any one wheel can be decoupledfrom the body as it goes over a small bump or hole.
Vehicles may alsomount the passenger compartment on arms so it can be pitched in turnsor tilted on acceleration and braking to provide minimal distractionto the passengers.
In time, safetyconcerns change considerably
Robocars will behighly unlikely to get in accidents. Once this is proven, theirdesigns can be made lighter, and many safety features many not be asimportant. (This is not to say that accidents become impossible, butthey may become so rare as to change the economic trade-offs of thesesafety features.)
As long as humandrivers share the road, safety belts will presumably be required, asa robocar may need to brake or swerve suddenly to react to a suddenstop by a vehicle ahead, road obstacle or pedestrian on the road.Airbags, however, may be able to suffice if such events become rare,as they will on highway lanes where pedestrians, and eventuallyhuman-driven vehicles (HDVs) are forbidden.
Today we allowpassengers on trains and buses to not wear seat-belts, and to get upand walk around during travel. As robocars attain the safety recordof a bus, this can be allowed in them.
The in-carenvironment changes considerably
The in-car environmentwill become more of a work and entertainment space than just a travelspace. Passengers will expect things like a screen, a keyboard, and adesk. Passengers may wish to face one another (though not all arecomfortable riding backwards.)
Quiet will be a veryimportant consideration, though passengers will be allowed to wearheadphones if desired, unlike drivers today.
Sleeper cars
The smooth ride(especially on the highway) of a robocar may generate demand for carsfor night-travel, while the passengers sleep. Such vehicles might aimto make a trip last 8 hours rather than make the fastest possibletrip, and as such would be much more energy efficient for such trips.
(This also requires avery low crash rate, as seat belts don't work as well on flat beds.)
While a sleepercarcould be a whistlecar, it would only work with a series of driverswho could take shifts.
Robo-RV
Reversing the greentrend of the short-range electric vehicle, there will be demand amongthe wealthier for RV type vehicles. Robo-RVs may be larger thantoday's RVs due to the computer's ability to safely move a largervehicle, or an articulated one.
It also becomespossible to have a "multi-unit" RV, where several vehiclestravel together and then dock or simply park closely together at acampsite. It may also be possible to rent additional modules in localareas and only move a smaller main module along with the people.
Taken to extremes,some may create an entire "mobile home" consisting of manytowable units which can move to a location and dock. Because of theenergy cost of this, and the fact that they can be sent ahead byslower means, such mobile home units might move themselves toconventional railways for the longest part of their journey. Railwaysare the most energy efficient land transport. (Sea transport is evenmore efficient through routes are longer.)
Of course, in manycases it would make sense to instead have permanent buildings withthe desired extra space and facilities, and have the robo-RV with theuser's personal gear dock to that, but such motels would not be foundeverywhere, of course. It becomes a question of whether the addedcost of hauling your own facilities is worth the added convenienceand customization, compared to the cost of renting localrobo-RV-modules or motel space.
Parking is not aproblem for the humans (or society.)
Robocars will parkthemselves (if they are not hiring out for more work) after droppingoff their passenger. They can park some distance from their owner, ata cost of energy and slight delay when the owner requests the vehiclecome to her. They can park far more densely in existing parkingareas, and half-width cars can park yet more densely. If there is agood estimate for when they will be needed (commute times, fixedlength events) they can park, if need be, remotely for a while, andthen park more closely around the estimated time of need.
Parking structurescould also be built for robocars that have many "half height"floors since humans will not walk frequently on the floors. However,it is debatable if new parking will actually be needed since robocarswill park so efficiently, and often be hired out and not parking atall in dense areas. The more cars are shared, the fewer cars thereare total in the city.
Robocars/Whistlecarscan store themselves in many places HDVs cannot, such as at theentrances to driveways on city streets, since they can always accepta request to temporarily unblock the entrance. They can also makedynamic use of street-sides, if necessary taking up every lane butone during low traffic periods, but clearing out when trafficincreases. It is not a problem to have robocars "double park"and even "triple park" as they will clear out on request.
Individuals need nothave garages in their homes, even if they own robocars. Theirrobocars can find dense parking somewhere near the home, and come tothe door on very short notice. This in turn changes many of the rulesof how we design buildings around cars, offering more useful streetfrontage in the homes.
Zero emission vehiclesmay also be allowed to enter buildings to drop off people or cargo.
Many car owners mayrent out their cars
A new market willprobably develop for people who wish to own a robocar, but wish torent it out when they are not using it, either to be greener and helppay for it; perhaps even profit from it.
As such, thesevehicles would be designed to facilitate such rental, includingcameras which can photograph the interior before and after (but notduring) any rental to identify who does any damage.
Cars will of coursebe able to take themselves to car cleaning stations as appropriate,when not in use.
Also desirable will bea special lock-box for the owner's personal gear that they like tohave with them when they travel. It should be easy (with the keys) tomove this lock-box to another vehicle, or to have a robot extract itfrom the owner's vehicle and get it delivered to where the owner isif they need something from it. The boxes would come in a fewstandard sizes to make them easy to move from car to car, but itmight also be possible to make one almost as big as a regular trunkthat moves only among a limited set of cars, or involves swap-outamong a set of users of one specific car.
Car clubs
Buyers may wish toform car clubs, where they share a pool of vehicles but rarely ornever rent them out to strangers. Such clubs would allow members toexpress themselves through their vehicles without the cost of awholly private vehicle. In effect this would be like buying a"time-share" of a car, except it comes to you when you callit.
Car-clubs might formad-hoc around a single vehicle. For example, one might join a clubwith no other purpose than to share one or more of a certain hot car,and belong to another club to share a different car.
In all cases, membersof car clubs could still rely on hiring outside vehicles if 2 memberswant the same vehicle at the same time.
Cars would be designedexpressly for car clubs, with ways to do automated customizations forthe particular occupant.
Cost concerns
The ability to sharevehicles in this manner may alter cost equations. While full-timetaxi companies will choose vehicles that give them the best return,private buyers may be willing to buy more expensive cars due to thereturn they get on renting them or sharing them. Cars that are sharedwill, like taxis, put on far more mileage that the typical privatevehicle today, and will be designed to get the best lifetime underthose circumstances. Fewer cars will be sold, however.
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