It is easy to project visible trends into the future and assume thatthey matter. It is generally a flawed methodology. New trendsemerge and grow exponentially until they achieve equilibrium. Recallthat twenty years ago that the internet was not even imagined. Twenty years before, the core protocols of the computer age werestill been test driven and Exxon was advertising how they had driventhe price of oil down for years. Twenty years before that we hardlyunderstood labor saving devices and lived with the tyranny ofyouthful sexuality and the necessary early pregnancies.
Let me make a couple of bold suggestions.
1 In twenty years the entire global population will live what weunderstand to be a modest middle class lifeway in modest communitiesdesigned to provides a full spectrum of services and support for allits members and tightly tied to the land. That is the objective ofthis blog and its implementation this quickly is feasible and likely. We are helping set these exponential trends in motion here.
2 Energy will be universally available from either geothermal, safethermal or fusion powered. The system will be hyper-efficient andlose little. Personal transportation will be universally electric. The oil industry will be a shadow of itself while coal will beextinct. It will change over that quickly.
3 Centralized political power will be waning except to focus globalefforts on Space development.
4 Global military power will be hugely diminished and be set up inthe form of crusader corps able to confront any remnant belligerence.
5 Huge nuclear powered air-cushioned icebreakers will dominate globalcontainer traffic and huge airships will dominate long distance landhaulage. Air cushion rail will begin to emerge to handle bulkhaulage.
6 The Holodec will become available.
7 The Magnetic Field Exclusion Vessel will be well on the way toreality allowing easy operations in the Solar System. (Google MFEV myblog)
8 Our diets will convert to a protocol that effectively eliminatescancers and chronic heart disease allowing a natural lifespan toreach 100. Access to telomere protocols will begin extending thoselifespans for the worthy.
9 The global internal growth rate will mature at around 3 to 4 % by2050. We will all master the art of happiness.
The really big change though will be the slow disappearance of Statepower as an end in itself. We are reaching a tipping point here andI hope that it does not become too bloody before a global resolutionasserts itself.
Intel report seesU.S. losing superpower status by 2030
Doug Stanglin, USATODAYShare
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/10/us-global-trend-intelligence-report-superpower-2030/1758465/
It predicts no countrywill have hegemonic power in a shift to "networks and coalitionsin a multipolar world."
11:29AM EST December10. 2012 - A report by theNational Intelligence Council predictsthat the United States will lose its superpower status by 2030, butthat no country -- including China -- will be a hegemonic power.
Instead, the reportsays, power will shift to "networks and coalitions in amultipolar world."
The council, whichwrote Global Trends 2030, was established in 1979. It supportsthe U.S. director of National Intelligence and is the intelligencecommunity's center for long-term strategic analysis.
The council'sintelligence officers are drawn from government, academia and theprivate sector.
"The world of2030 will be radically transformed from our world today," thereport concludes. "By 2030, no country -- whether the U.S.,China, or any other large country -- will be a hegemonic power."The report also findsthat the empowerment of individuals and a diffusion of power amongstates -- and from states -- to informal networks will have a"dramatic impact."
This development, thereport finds, will largely reverse the historic rise of the Westsince 1750, "restoring Asia's weight in the global economy andushering in a new era of 'democratization' at the international anddomestic level."
The report furtherexpects the rapid aging of the world population to continue as wellas a growing demand on resources, which might lead to scarcities offood and water.
Among its assessment,the report looks at plausible worst-case and best-case scenarios overthe next two decades.
In the formercategory, it sees the risk of interstate conflict increasing and theU.S. "draws inward and globalization stalls."
In the best-casescenario, China and the U.S. collaborate on a range of issues,leading to a broader global cooperation.
The world of 2030:U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce
By Olivier Knox,
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/world-2030-u-declines-food-water-may-scarce-162757458--politics.html
Sorry, everyone, butflying cars don't appear in the "Global Trends 2030:Alternative Worlds"report that the director of nationalintelligence's office made public on Monday.
Instead, the NationalIntelligence Council paints the picture of a world in which the U.S.is no longer the unquestionably dominant global player; individualsand small groups may carry out devastating cyber or bioterrorattacks; oh, and food and water may be running short in some places.
The 160-page report isa great read for anyone in the business of crafting the script forthe next James Bond movie, a treasure trove of potential scenariosfor international intrigue, not to mention super-villainy. But thecouncil took pains to say that what it foresees is not set in stone.The goal is to provide policymakers with some idea of what the futureholds in order to help them steer the right economic and militarycourses.
"We do not seekto predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—butinstead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures andtheir implications," the report cautioned.
Other ideas thefuturists reported: Global population will reach "somewhereclose to 8.3 billion people," and food and water may be runningscarce in some areas, especially regions like Africa and the MiddleEast.
"Climatechange will worsen the outlook for the availability of these criticalresources," the report said. "Climate change analysissuggests that the severity of existing weather patterns willintensify, with wet areas getting wetter, and dry and arid areasbecoming more so."We are not necessarily headed into a world ofscarcities, but policymakers and their private sector partners willneed to be proactive to avoid such a future."
What about America in2030? The report predicts that the U.S. "most likely will remain'first among equals' among the other great powers." But "withthe rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over andPax Americana—the era of American ascendancy in internationalpolitics that began in 1945—is fast winding down."
Also, "Asia willhave surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of globalpower, based upon GDP [Gross Domestic Product], population size,military spending and technological investment," the reportsaid.
It also suggests thatIslamist extremism may be a thing of the past in 2030. But thatdoesn't mean small groups won't try to wreak havoc.
"With morewidespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individualswho are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell theirservices to the highest bidder, including terrorists who would focusless on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespreadeconomic and financial disruptions," said the report.
Four "megatrends"shaping the world were cited: growing individual empowerment;diffusion of power; major shifts in demographics; and rising demandfor food, water and energy.
The report also seesthe potential for "black swan" shocks to the system. Theseinclude: a severe pandemic; faster-than-forecast climate change; thecollapse of the European Union; the collapse of China (or its embraceof democracy); and a reformed Iran that abandons its suspectednuclear weapons program. They also include a conflict using nuclear,chemical, or biological weapons, or a large-scale cyber-attack; solargeomagnetic storms that may knock out satellites and the electricgrid; or a sudden retreat of the U.S. from global affairs.
So what about theflying cars, a staple of science fiction? The report is mum on thatfront, but it does raise the intriguing possibility that"self-driving cars could begin to address the worseningcongestion in urban areas, reduce roadway accidents, and improveindividuals' productivity (by allowing drivers the freedom to workthrough their commutes)."
And the cool cats overat Wired magazine's "Danger Room" national security bloghave underlined how the report sees the growth of other technologies,including "superhumans" potentially roaming thelandscape.
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